2024 Presidential Election Outlook

Even though the next presidential election is not for another year and a half, candidate announcements, fundraising, and campaigning efforts are already underway. Here is an analysis of the current political landscape and prospects for the 2024 election cycle.

President Joe Biden                         

While President Biden has not formally declared his candidacy for a second term and there are concerns about his age among Republicans and Democrats alike, he has branded himself as a stabilizer of democracy and, should he run, will likely tout his legislative achievements including the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the Inflation Reduction Act. If he does decide to run, he will more than likely be the frontrunner in a small pool of Democratic candidates.

Former President Donald Trump

Former President Donald Trump (R) is an obvious candidate to highlight. He is seeking to become only the second president in history to return to the oval office in a non-consecutive term. The prospect for him to jump in front of the GOP field is strong, as he still remains popular among the Republican base despite numerous scandals, including the events on January 6, 2021.

However, the former President is now headlining the news for a different reason --- facing 34 felony charges of falsifying business records in the first degree. These charges all relate to a $130,000 hush-money payment by lawyer Michael Cohen to Stormy Daniels, an adult film star. This payment was intended to prevent Daniels from publicizing her alleged affair with Trump in 2007.

Despite the soundbites, legal experts affirm that even a conviction would not disqualify Trump’s bid for the presidency. The former President himself vowed to reporters that he would “absolutely” stay in the race, even if he were to be criminally indicted adding, “Probably, it’ll enhance my numbers.” Regardless of legal outcome, Trump’s candidacy makes the 2024 battle for the White House a lot more interesting. President Trump’s 2024 candidacy announcement video can be viewed here.

More Candidates Officially in the Running

So far, the only Democrat who has announced their candidacy is Marianne Williamson, a self-help author and former spiritual adviser to Oprah Winfrey. This will be her second presidential run since a failed campaign in 2020. It is evident that bigger names in the Democratic Party will wait for President Biden’s announcement before making any political moves.

Republicans, on the other hand, already have several candidates in the running including Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Perry Johnson, and Asa Hutchinson.

Haley is a former governor of South Carolina and United Nations ambassador under the Trump Administration. In just the first six weeks of her candidacy, Haley has already raised $11 million. In comparison, Trump raised only $9.5 million during the same period. This is a testament to Haley’s broad appeal and effective fundraising efforts.

Haley is joined in the race by 37-year-old Vivek Ramaswamy, an American entrepreneur, author, and conservative political activist. Like many GOP presidential prospects, he is pushing “anti-woke” rhetoric as his brand. Politico notes that his election is a long shot, as “self-funding candidates often tire of spending millions of dollars if they aren’t catching on among the electorate.”

Finally, candidate Asa Hutchinson has already had a lengthy career in public office. His accolades include former U.S. Attorney, Congressman, Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) administrator, and two-term Arkansas Governor. However, he will likely face an uphill battle with so many big GOP names already in the field.

Other Prospects

We are also keeping an eye on candidates expected to run, but not officially announced. Some of the “maybes” include Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R), former Vice President Mike Pence (R), South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem (R), Trump’s former CIA Director and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R), and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott (R). Because of ideological divisions within the Republican candidate pool and broader electorate, we can expect to see even more candidates throw their names in the ring.

Constitution Partners will continue to monitor early prospects for the 2024 presidential election. This is just the beginning of a lengthy, contentious campaign cycle.