Retirements & Resignations Create Obstacles for 118th (and 119th) Congress

Ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy has announced his resignation from office after a 17-year tenure, marking the end of an era for a generation of House Republicans. McCarthy's departure signifies a shift within the Republican leadership, especially considering his association with former Reps. Paul Ryan and Eric Cantor, collectively known as the "Young Guns," advocated for a new style of GOP governance.

Penning his announcement in the Wall Street Journal, McCarthy expressed his commitment to the principles that guided his tenure, stating, "No matter the odds, or personal cost, we did the right thing." He emphasized his dedication to continue supporting the Republican Party's expansion by recruiting new leaders, pledging to contribute his experience to nurture the next generation.

McCarthy's exit was expected given the strained relationship with the conservative hardliners who orchestrated his removal. Speculations abound that McCarthy might actively participate in primary elections to challenge those who voted against him.

The question of McCarthy's replacement has ignited a scramble among California politicians. It is almost certain that his replacement will be a Republican, and one name has come to the forefront: former Rep. Devin Nunes. The process for naming a successor in California is ultimately in the hands of Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom. According to the California Secretary of State, since McCarthy isn’t vacating his seat until after the candidate filing deadline, it’s up to Governor Newsom to decide whether to call a special election in 2024 to fill the remaining months of McCarthy’s current term. A spokesperson for the governor’s office said a special election would need to be called within 14 days of a vacancy, but did not answer questions about whether Newsom plans to do so.

Grim Outlook on Republican Majority

McCarthy's resignation poses a threat to the already slim Republican majority in the House, with implications for the distribution of seats between Republicans and Democrats.

Even with the two new vacancies, Republicans will keep a three-vote cushion on any party-line measure. With McCarthy and George Santos gone, it leaves 220 Republicans and 213 Democrats, but the threshold for a majority will dip from 218 members to 217 members. Another departure on our radar: Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH) has announced his intention to take an early exit before March 2024 to become the president of Youngstown State University. With Rep. Johnson’s departure (not to be confused with Speaker Johnson – he’s not quitting yet), the threshold for a majority dips to 216. Republican leadership will need tight control over the caucus – particularly over attendance – to ensure key votes have support and control of the House is maintained.

Further Loss of Institutional Knowledge in the House

One of the most concerning issues with turnover in recent years is the absence of institutional knowledge. One congressman close to Constitution Partners has regularly cited that about 215 members of the House (or about half of the chamber) have never voted on a Farm Bill. In fact, only nine of the House Agriculture Committee’s 27 Republican members were in the 115th Congress, which produced the 2018 Farm Bill.

As of today, more than 30 lawmakers have already announced their intent to retire or resign from the House. At least 18 seats on exclusive committees — Appropriations, Ways and Means, Energy and Commerce, Financial Services, and Rules — will open by 2025 when members skip re-election, resign, or seek other office.

As of today, more than 30 lawmakers have already announced their intent to retire or resign from the House. At least 18 seats on exclusive committees — Appropriations, Ways and Means, Energy and Commerce, Financial Services, and Rules — will open by 2025 when members skip re-election, resign, or seek other office.

Kay Granger of Texas, Chair of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, is one of the most notable losses for the Republican conference. One Republican and two Democrats, including Rep. Earl Blumenauer of Oregon, who’s served for almost three decades, will leave the Ways and Means Committee.

The departure of experienced lawmakers gives rise to apprehensions regarding the incomplete projects and policy initiatives left in their wake. Undoubtedly, the significance of the 2024 election cannot be overstated, as it not only shapes the nation's executive leadership but also ushers in new and unseasoned faces to the legislative branch. The decisions made by voters will wield considerable influence in defining the trajectory of our country’s legislative body.