Election Update: VP Debate & Down Ballot Races With Only 30 Days Remaining
The First (and Last) Vice Presidential Debate
In a highly anticipated showdown, Tim Walz and JD Vance squared off on pivotal issues like abortion rights, foreign policy, and housing costs, marking the final major political event before the November 5 election.
Vance, leveraging his media experience, maintained composure throughout, while Walz, despite some early gaffes, found his rhythm as the debate progressed. Both candidates succeeded in avoiding any critical errors that could have shifted undecided voters. The debate, unlike recent confrontations, was noted for its civility, with both contenders acknowledging areas of agreement while still delivering sharp critiques of their presidential opponents.
Walz, Minnesota’s governor and a former congressman and social studies teacher, had a rocky start, including an unfortunate slip where he said he “became friends with school shooters” instead of their families. Vance, despite previous controversies, showcased the poise that secured his spot as Donald Trump’s running mate, effectively parrying attacks and arguing that Vice President Kamala Harris had ample opportunity to implement her policies. His biting comment: “If Kamala Harris has such great plans for middle-class issues, she should’ve done them by now instead of waiting for a promotion.”
Walz zeroed in on Trump’s record on COVID-19, healthcare, and job losses, addressing his own missteps with an earnest, “I’m a knucklehead at times.” The debate reached emotional peaks when abortion and gun rights were discussed, with Walz affirming Democrats' commitment to pro-choice policies and Vance advocating for Republicans' efforts to rebuild trust on abortion. Walz also challenged Vance on the 2020 election results, to which Vance deflected, stating, “I’m focused on the future.” Walz retorted: “That is a damning non-answer.”
A Politico snap poll indicated no clear winner of the debate, though party affiliation strongly shaped perceptions. Notably, Walz held an advantage with independents, with 58% believing he outperformed Vance, while 42% sided with Vance. Walz polled strongest with younger viewers (ages 25-34), college graduates, and Black and Latino voters, while Vance found his base among older, white, and non-college-educated voters.
Polling and Campaign Updates
According to the New York Times national polling average, the race remains neck and neck, with no candidate holding a decisive lead. The political landscape had been relatively quiet before the Vice Presidential debate, allowing the polls to stabilize and offer a clearer snapshot of the race. Recent polling shows slight movement in Arizona and Pennsylvania, where President Trump has gained ground, particularly among Latino voters, though both states remain in play for either candidate.
As for down-ballot races, CNN has ranked the top 10 Senate seats likely to flip, with Sen. Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia topping the list, followed by Sen. Jon Tester of Montana and Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio. However, polling reveals that most Republican Senate candidates are trailing behind Trump. In Ohio, Trump leads the GOP Senate nominee Bernie Moreno by an average of 8.7 points. In Wisconsin, Trump is polling 2.2 points ahead of Eric Hovde, and in Arizona, Trump holds 49.3% compared to Kari Lake’s 43.4%. Despite this, Cook Political Reportanalysis shows Democratic Senate candidates maintaining a lead in all key battlegrounds.
As both campaigns charge ahead, Vice President Harris is set to campaign with Liz Cheney in Wisconsin, while President Trump rallies in Michigan. Harris and Walz are doubling down on their economic platform, particularly after Harris faced criticism over this being a weak point in the debate. For more on Harris' economic policy, seeConstitution Partners' analysis.
With 32 days left until the election, the outcome of both the presidential race and control of Congress remains uncertain. The Vice Presidential debate likely marked the last major news network appearance for either ticket before November 5. Constitution Partners will continue to provide critical updates as Election Day approaches.