Trends & Dynamics of the 2024 Election
With the 2024 election season fully underway, welcome to the Constitution Partners analysis of trends and dynamics for the presidential and congressional races we are tracking.
Presidency
Despite our position still the infancy stages of the 2024 election primary season, much attention is already pivoting towards the forthcoming general election, where President Biden and former President Donald Trump are widely regarded as the frontrunners.
President Trump has already notched a record victory in the Iowa Republican Caucus, winning 99 out of 100 counties, followed by a decisive victory in New Hampshire. A third victory was secured in Nevada the other week. All eyes now turn to South Carolina where former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley looks to her home state for assistance in continuing her insurgent challenge to President Trump’s dominance within the Republican Party. Haley, the only remaining challenger to President Trump's coronation as the Republican nominee, has vowed to continue her campaign in opposition to the "chaos that follows" her Party's nominee, but continued electoral shortcomings may evaporate voter and financial support soon.
On the Democratic side, President Biden scored resounding victories in the South Carolina and Nevada Democratic primaries, as well as the New Hampshire primary. His victory in New Hampshire, garnering nearly 64% of the vote as a write in, was notable given his absence on the ballot due to a dispute between the state and the Democratic National Committee. Biden's most vocal primary challenger, Congressman Dean Phillips of Minnesota, has failed to produce any meaningful demonstration of a groundswell insurgency campaign. Notably, however, it is other candidates in select states that could spell trouble for the incumbent Democrat's reelection chances. Cornell West, the Independent candidate, continues to be a thorn in President Biden's side; though West has a low chance of gaining nationwide momentum, he can certainly overperform in some key states, such as Michigan where the President only won it in 2020 by three percentage points. The key state of Michigan hosts a large Muslim population and many voters have been outspoken in their opposition to the President's stance in light of the October 2023 terrorist attacks against Israel. In fact, incumbent Democratic Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib most recently encouraged her Michigan constituents to vote against the President in the Primary and "vote uncommitted." That contest will certainly be another test of the President's strength within the Party and the state of Michigan as we careen full speed towards November.
Early primaries reveal that Trump continues to grapple with challenges among specific demographic groups such as urban, suburban, and college-educated voters. These demographics have historically influenced election outcomes, especially in swing states, and their support is crucial in the upcoming 2024 cycle. Notably, in many suburban precincts in Iowa, Trump received less than a quarter of the vote, reflecting ongoing concerns. Surprisingly, a considerable portion of voters remain unconvinced that 2024 will feature a Biden-Trump rematch. According to a recent poll by Echelon Insights, 67 percent of likely voters believe Trump will secure the GOP nomination, while 59 percent anticipate Biden will clinch the Democratic nomination.
The race to 270 electoral votes traditionally states with a robust primary between the major party candidates, followed by a unique trajectory through the United States every four years. From age to indictments, fault can be found with both candidates. That said, one campaign priority Republicans have consistently failed at messaging successfully on remains women’s health care and abortion rights. This past week, it was leaked that President Trump has informed allies that he backs a 16-week abortion ban, a stance that will only infuriate women’s interest and advocacy groups nationwide. Though the Dobbs court case, which went to the Supreme Court and overturned Roe v. Wade, could be thought of in our nation’s rear view mirror, one can still see impacts of this decision in election turnout and results across the country. Though still early, key swing states we can identify at this time include Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.
U.S. Senate
The 2024 election for control over the U.S. Senate strongly favors the Republican Party. Of the 34 Senate seats up for reelection, 23 are held by Democrats or Independents that caucus with Democrats. Three of those 23 seats are from states former President Trump carried in 2020 by significant margins.
Senate Democrats only hold a two-seat majority in the 118th Congress and are looking to play defense in an increasingly difficult electoral map. Other races are certainly exciting and important, such as races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, but the elections to protect Democratic holds over Montana (Tester) and Ohio (Brown) will certainly dominate the attention and investments of leaders and organizations focused on their Party’s control over the U.S. Senate. And to nip it in the bud early, please do not place much stock in a future Senator Larry Hogan of Maryland.
House of Representatives
The 118th Congress has been a model of ineffectiveness and partisan brinkmanship, particularly in the House of Representatives. We are currently under our third continuing resolution to fund the government and operating under the leadership of our second Speaker of the House in as many years. In addition, current vacancies leave Republican Speaker Mike Johnson with a barely working majority most of the time.
The House will have 219 Republicans and 213 Democrats once Tom Suozzi (D) is sworn in to complete the term of expelled ex-Rep. George Santos (R). Democrats are set to add a 214th member on April 30, when New York state Sen. Tim Kennedy is favored to win a special election in the state’s strongly Democratic 26th District in Buffalo. Kennedy would succeed ex-Rep. Brian Higgins (D).
The other two vacancies are in Republican strongholds. The central California district of ex-speaker Kevin McCarthy (R) probably won’t be filled until a May 21. Ohio’s 6th District, which ex-Rep. Bill Johnson (R) vacated to become a university president, will be filled in a June 11 special election.
Looking ahead to what the House may look like in the 119th Congress, there may be as many as 22 House races ranked as toss up elections in November 2024. Democrats should hope to hold on to the five Democratic districts carried by President Trump in 2020, while Republicans face the taller task of protecting 17 congressional seats in districts won by President Biden in 2020.
The 2024 election season presents a landscape marked by intriguing dynamics and pivotal trends. The presidential race showcases early victories for President Trump, yet challenges persist among key demographic groups, hinting at a nuanced electoral calculus ahead. President Biden's successes underscore his enduring appeal within the Democratic Party. The battle for Senate control heavily favors Republicans, while the House of Representatives reflects a volatile political climate with numerous vacancies and tight races on the horizon. As the election unfolds, the interplay of these factors will shape the course of American politics, defining the contours of power and governance in the years to come.
