The Evolution of Speaker Johnson's Stance on Ukraine

On Tuesday April 23 the Senate voted to approve a new aid package for Ukraine, ending months of struggle between Speaker Mike Johnson and the White House. The White House has not been shy about their efforts to sway the new Speaker to pass a package for Ukraine, and senior officials said they worked tirelessly through meetings, phone calls, and detailed briefings on the status of the war. Johnson was also under pressure from his conservative members, urging him to resist any efforts to increase spending on foreign wars. The struggle finally came to an end on Tuesday when the Senate passed the $95 billion foreign aid package, which included nearly $61 billion for Ukraine. This secured a major policy win for President Biden, who has made Ukraine funding, and rallying Western support around protecting democracy a major part of his presidency. The bill also includes $26 billion for Israel and humanitarian assistance, as well as $8 billion for the Indo-Pacific and Taiwan. 

Getting the Speaker to Yes

Speaker Johnson has been outspoken against pursuing foreign aid, many times ensuring packages would be dead on arrival when they hit the floor. Although one of his first actions as Speaker was to provide $14.3 billion in aid for Israel, which went nowhere with the Democratic controlled Senate, Johnson has dragged his feet on the issue of Ukraine. This is partly due to the pressures he faced from his own caucus, but also from President Trump, who has been very critical about sending aid to Ukraine. Despite these pressures the Biden Administration remained in regular contact with the new Speaker and his staff, working to convince him of the urgency around sending aid to Ukraine, and encouraging his office to work with other Republican members to galvanize support for these issues. It was not just the White House who worked on Johnson. The US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink met with Johnson, McConnell and other GOP leaders, the Defense Department held briefings for House Republicans, and CIA Director Bill Burns hosted Johnson’s staff in March to talk through the situation in Ukraine and its relevant national security implications. Ultimately, these sessions with top leaders were effective, and now Speaker Johnson must face his own caucus. 

The decision to bring the bill to the floor was immediately seen as a risky move, and Conservatives were skeptical of holding separate votes on aid for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan without including border policies. Johnson was also worried about the potential this had to trigger a snap vote that would remove him from his speakership. When talking about the decision to push the vote forward on Tuesday, Johnson said as a devout Christian, he turned to prayer. “He was torn between trying to save his job and do the right thing,” House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul, a top Ukraine advocate who was with Johnson the night before the legislation was released, told CNN. “He prayed over it.” 

The bill ultimately passed with the support of 210 Democrats and 101 Republicans in the House, marking a major bipartisan victory for the young Speaker as well as a major evolution in his thinking around Ukraine. Whether it be the numerous briefings, and the house the White House spent getting Johnson to yes, or his prayer practice, the decision to pass a package and risk his Speakership has been met with both support and outrage. Another factor that many believe ultimately impacted the Speaker's decision: his oldest son was accepted into the Naval Academy. When speaking with reporters on Wednesday he said, “To put it bluntly, I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys. My son is going to begin in the Naval Academy this fall. This is a live-fire exercise for me as it is for so many American families.” 

Republican members of the House have not said whether or not they plan to oust Johnson over this decision, but should they follow through, Johnson will need to rely on Democrats for support. According to sources close to the Speaker, senior Republican officials believe many Democrats would be willing to bail Johnson out if it comes down to it.