Shutdown Showdown: Ukraine, Israel, and Everything in Between

Congress is staring down yet another deadline for avoiding a U.S. government shutdown. This will likely require Congress to approve a short-term spending bill by November 17, giving lawmakers more time to negotiate on the 12 appropriations bills to fund federal programs through September 30, 2024.

The Democratic-controlled Senate and Republican-controlled House of Representatives have struggled for months over their respective bills. Once passed, the two chambers would then have to agree on compromise versions before sending them to President Joe Biden for signing into law.

You can see the status of all 12 funding bills here. For now, here is a breakdown of what the key policymakers are thinking running up to November 17.

Executive Branch

 While addressing the nation on October 19, President Biden requested an emergency $105 billion national security spending package to provide military aid to Israel and Ukraine addressing “the global humanitarian impacts of Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine and of Hamas’ horrific attacks on Israel, including by extending humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza.”

Further on the Ukraine front, during a hearing before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Department of State and U.S. Agency for International Development officials stressed serious ramifications if Congress withholds the Biden administration’s roughly $61 billion request to bolster Ukraine’s continued war against Russian aggression. “If we turn our backs here, we are turning our backs on those who would confront us around the globe,” testified James O’Brien, Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian affairs at the State Department.

The Republican-led House last week approved the money for Israel, but that bill is dead on arrival in the Senate because it includes domestic spending cuts and omits help for Ukraine. The Senate has not yet taken up an alternative.

House of Representatives

 Newly-elected Speaker Mike Johnson, is short on both time and experience to avert a government shutdown. But, with that temporary funding measure set to expire next week, Speaker Johnson appears set on avoiding a repeat of the circumstances that doomed his predecessor. That means he will need to corral nearly all Republicans to pass a government funding measure, a considerable feat given his party’s resistance to federal spending.

Speaker Johnson plans to release his proposal for temporary government funding that will set the tone for talks and signal the risk of a federal funding lapse on the 17th soon. The House plans to vote on November 14th on the plan, lawmakers said.

The far-right Freedom Caucus Members are insisting on deep spending cuts, just as they did ahead of the last shutdown deadline. There is also internal party conflict coming from moderate Republicans as they raise complaints about abortion policy riders, overly cutting spending, and other conservative measures.

As for what the continuing resolution could look like, one idea being pushed by House conservatives is to set up a series of separate shutdown deadlines by funding some government agencies through Dec. 7 and others to Jan. 19. Another “laddered” stopgap spending bill option has end dates in January and February.

Regardless, Speaker Johnson will need the support of virtually all Republicans unless he offers a bipartisan plan acceptable to Democrats. He can only afford to lose four Republican Members on a party-line vote

Senate

Senators don’t see a stopgap funding bill combined with Ukraine, Israel, and border measures as a sure thing. This past week, Senate Republicans were digging in against advancing any aid to Israel and Ukraine that did not include significant immigration policy changes and money. Senate Democrats, led by Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the majority leader, quickly dismissed their initial offer as unacceptable. 

“Making Ukraine funding conditional on the hard-right border policies that can’t ever pass Congress is a huge mistake by our Republican colleagues,” Schumer said. “By tying Ukraine to the border, Republicans are sadly making it harder — much harder — for us to help Ukraine in their fight against Putin.”

Meanwhile, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is getting strong pushback from within his conference as he tries to keep military aid for Israel and aid for Ukraine tied together. Despite this, he has held strong in his belief that the two funding packages be connected. Other GOP members have joined McConell in supporting a joint Ukraine and Israel package such as House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) and House Intelligence Chair Mike Turner (R-OH) who agree on linking these causes that threaten the free world. 

Around the Country

There has been no shortage of outrage and protests around the country regarding the situation in Israel, most prominently on college campuses. Students around the country have staged protests and walkouts, but there also has been an immense rise in antisemitism. Colleges and Universities have reported physical violence between students, pro-Palestinian groups ripping down posters of missing Jewish children in Gaza, and many have expelled students on both sides for hateful speach and actions. President Biden unveiled new actions to combat anti-semmitism on college campuses, after reports of violence from schools across the country increased after October 7th. Mitch McConell made a speech on the Senate floor condemning anti-simetic messages posted on George Washington University's library. Other Republican lawmakers have spoken out, and a bipartisan legislation has been passed in the House to condemn antisemitism and support for Hamas on campuses.