The Politics & Process Behind Upcoming Speaker Election
On January 3, the 119th Congress will convene, and the U.S. House of Representatives faces the critical task of electing its Speaker, the chamber's presiding officer. While Republicans maintain a narrow majority, internal divisions within the caucus pose significant challenges for incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA-04) as he seeks to retain his leadership role. The most recent test of Johnson's leadership came during December's government funding negotiations, where he faced criticism from both rank-and-file House Republicans and President-elect Donald Trump after 38 Republican members voted against the Speaker’s negotiated agreement with Democratic lawmakers.
As the nation turns its attention to the upcoming Speaker of the House election, Constitution Partners examines its significance, the procedural steps involved, and the current political dynamics that challenge Speaker Johnson's leadership. These dynamics highlight potential fractures within Republican unity as the 119th Congress convenes.
Constitutional Mandate and Procedure
The U.S. Constitution mandates that the House must elect a Speaker before conducting any other business, including swearing in its members. This election requires a majority vote from the members present and voting for a named candidate; abstentions or votes of "present" are excluded from the total count. The process is conducted through a roll-call vote, where each member-elect verbally announces their choice. If no candidate achieves a majority, the House continues voting until a Speaker is elected. This procedure ensures that the House is organized and ready to undertake its legislative responsibilities.
Acting House Clerk Kevin McCumber will preside over the chamber until the House elects a Speaker. The first official action will be a "call of the House," during which Members-elect establish their presence by voting "present." This process is critical because the threshold for electing a Speaker hinges on "a majority vote from the members present and voting for a named candidate." As such, both attendance and individual votes are key factors. Observers and vote trackers must closely monitor not only which lawmakers are present but also how they cast their votes, as these variables will determine the outcome.
Current Political Landscape
In the upcoming session, Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House, controlling 219 seats compared to the Democrats' 215. Assuming all incoming lawmakers of the 119th Congress arrive on January 3 to vote in the Speaker’s election, the magic number for a majority is 218. If Johnson loses the support of even just one or two members of his caucus, he will be unable to secure a majority vote to serve as Speaker in the 119th. This math obviously changes if lawmakers abstain, vote ‘present,’ or simply do not show up for the vote.
Democrats have consistently supported Rep. Hakeem Jeffries as their candidate in previous Speaker elections and are unlikely to break ranks to back Speaker Johnson, even to resolve potential parliamentary gridlock. Without a Speaker, the House cannot conduct any business – including certifying the 2024 election results, a key activity currently scheduled for January 6.
In 2023, it took former Speaker Kevin McCarthy 15 rounds of voting to secure the gavel, delaying the swearing-in of new members by several days. McCarthy’s tenure ended months later when he was ousted, leading to a three-week struggle within the Republican Party before unifying behind Johnson. These historical delays highlight the challenges ahead and the potential for significant disruptions if a consensus is not reached swiftly.
Challenges Facing Speaker Johnson
Despite an endorsement from President-elect Donald Trump, Speaker Johnson's path to re-election is fraught with challenges. While some outspoken lawmakers have publicly voiced their loss of faith in Speaker Johnson’s leadership, others remain non-committal and avoid answering questions. There may be upwards of 12 to 15 House Republicans still undecided on whether to continue supporting Johnson as Speaker of the House. Those numbers may have changed since President-elect Trump endorsed Speaker Johnson to serve again as the presiding officer, but some lawmakers remain unconvinced.
The most vocal critics of Johnson’s leadership have come from the conservative House Freedom Caucus, have expressed reservations about Johnson's leadership. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY-04) has publicly stated his intention to oppose Johnson, citing concerns over government spending and the need for structural changes in the legislative process. He has even posted a rebuttal to former Speaker New Gingrich’s voiced frustrations over lawmakers considering opposing Speaker Johnson in the upcoming election. Chair of the House Freedom Caucus, Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD-01), explained his ‘undecided’ stance on Speaker Johnson’s leadership in a statement expressing frustration over the excess spending that has continued under Speaker Johnson’s leadership. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN-05) has refused committee assignments in protest of XXXX and she also reiterated her demand for assurances from Speaker Johnson in exchange for her support. Spartz recently made headlines after she released a statement that she would remain a Republican, but not serve on committees or participate in the caucus because she did not want “to be involved in circuses.”
Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX-21) is another outspoken conservative budget hawk frustrated at incumbent Republican leadership’s lack of action to address government spending. Roy remains undecided and has been calling fellow lawmakers to conduct a “temperature check” to determine the viability of other potential candidates for Speaker, such as Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH-04). It is worth noting that Jordan has reiterated his public support for Speaker Johnson and retweeted the President-elect’s endorsement of Johnson’s reelection as Speaker of the House in the 119th Congress.
One matter that may or may not help Johnson lock up the votes he needs to stay on as Speaker: the vote on a House rules package. A key part of the parliamentary process behind general management and operations of the House is the passage of and adherence to a rules package. This vote should take place after the election of a Speaker. The recently released rules (*here’s a section by section summary*) contain a number of mundane process provisions, but also raises the threshold of lawmakers required to trigger a ‘motion to vacate’ against a Speaker from one person to nine. This new agreement, negotiated between the conservative House Freedom Caucus and the Republican Main Street Caucus back in November, aims to address the concerns and headaches that arose from the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Democrats have already criticized this portion of the rules package as it only allows members of the majority party to initiate a motion to vacate, thus depriving members of a minority party of any ability to hold a Speaker of the House accountable. In addition to modifying the motion to vacate, the rules package introduces several changes, including renaming two House committees, permitting committees to establish rules for electronic voting, and setting the stage for votes on 12 GOP-sponsored bills. These bills cover a range of topics such as immigration, voter ID requirements, and transgender student athletes. However, one bill concerning the International Criminal Court has already sparked criticism from some House Republicans. Speaker Johnson is reportedly unwilling to negotiate on these rules, which could complicate efforts to address any divisions that may arise within the caucus regarding the package.
Implications of a Delayed Election
The election of the Speaker is not merely a procedural formality; it has substantial implications for the functioning of the House and the broader government. Without a Speaker, the House cannot swear in its members, form committees, or pass legislation. A prolonged delay could impede critical governmental functions, including the certification of the presidential election results, which is constitutionally scheduled for January 6. In an extreme scenario, if the House fails to elect a Speaker by Inauguration Day on January 20, it could disrupt the presidential line of succession, potentially leading to unprecedented constitutional challenges. Therefore, a timely election is crucial to ensure governmental continuity and stability.
With a narrow majority and outspoken internal dissent, the Republican Party faces a complex, but not insurmountable, path to electing its leader in the House. Expect Speaker Johnson and his allies to be lobbying lawmakers throughout the day and night in hopes of securing the mandate for another stint as leader of the House of Representatives.
Though he hasn’t weighed in how he is voting yet, Rep. Clay Higgins (R-LA-03) captured the mood of anticipation with an evocative tweet featuring his shadow stretching before the Capitol dome under the evening sky. His message was brief but foreboding: "Buckle up."
