A Sprint Through September, November, and the Final Days of the 118th Congress
As Congress returns from its August recess, the legislative agenda for September and the final stretch of 2024 looks especially packed and contentious. With only 13 legislative days scheduled in September and 39 total until the end of the year, lawmakers face critical decisions on government funding, the Farm Bill, and a host of other pressing issues before the election on November 5. Additionally, a potential lame-duck session after the election could see movement on key legislative priorities, depending on the election results.
September Legislative Agenda
Government Funding and the Risk of Shutdown
One of the most urgent items on Congress’s to-do list is funding the government beyond the September 30 deadline. To avoid a government shutdown, Congress must pass a continuing resolution (CR) or full-year appropriations bills. However, this is complicated by internal divisions within the House Republican caucus and their strategy to link funding to unrelated policy measures, such as voter ID requirements.
House Speaker Mike Johnson’s plan, which aims to fund the government through March 2025, includes a provision requiring proof of citizenship for voter registration. While this measure appeals to many Republicans, it is a nonstarter for Democrats and is unlikely to pass the Democratic-held Senate. The possibility of a government shutdown looms as conservatives push to attach the controversial voter registration proposal to the must-pass spending bill. This strategy, however, would likely backfire politically just weeks before the election.
Some House Republicans are worried about the optics of a government shutdown so close to the election, fearing it could hurt their chances of holding onto their slim majority.
We anticipate a short-term extension of government funding through either the election or – less likely – perhaps into 2025.
2024 Farm Bill
In addition to funding the government, Congress must also decide how to handle the upcoming expiration of the 2018 Farm Bill, which expires on September 30. The Farm Bill is a massive piece of legislation that covers everything from crop subsidies to nutrition assistance programs like SNAP. Negotiations to reauthorize the Farm Bill have been slow, and it is likely that Congress will pass a short-term extension rather than a full reauthorization.
Another one-year extension of the 2018 Farm Bill, as anticipated by some lawmakers, would be unprecedented, given that the bill has already been extended once. However, with no new consensus emerging on major issues like conservation funding and crop insurance, as well as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, a temporary patch may be the only option available. Farmers, meanwhile, are pushing for a new, modernized Farm Bill that better reflects today’s agricultural economy, which faces challenges from rising costs and climate change.
Tax and Permitting Reforms
While the fiscal deadlines are the most pressing issues, there are other legislative priorities that may be addressed. One possibility is tax reform, particularly efforts to extend expiring provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Republicans have long been advocating for the extension of individual tax cuts that are set to expire at the end of 2025. Most believe comprehensive tax reform legislation will happen either after the election or in the new Congress in 2025.
Additionally, both parties have shown interest in passing reforms to streamline the permitting process for energy projects, an issue that gained momentum after the passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.
The bipartisan permitting reform bill, the Energy Permitting Reform Act of 2024, proposed by Senators Manchin (I-WV) and Barrasso (R-WY) is a very promising piece of legislation. It represents a step forward in tackling the challenges of our nation’s energy infrastructure by improving the transparency, predictability, and efficiency of the federal permitting process.
In the final days of the August recess, House Natural Resources Committee Chairman Bruce Westerman (R-AR) introduced another permitting bill as a ‘discussion draft’ in the hope it will provide a cogent starting point for discussions between himself and the Democratic Ranking Member of the Committee, Congressman Scott Peters of California. While the legislation is not publicly released yet, we do know that it is similar to the Manchin/Barrasso bill in that it limits how long opponents of projects have to sue. The bill also limits the use of ‘new science’ in environmental reviews and restricts courts’ ability to block projects just because of insufficient environmental analysis.
Election News and Its Impact on Congress
As lawmakers focus on these major legislative battles, the shadow of the November 5 election looms large. The upcoming election will determine control of both chambers of Congress and set the political stage for 2025. With the House of Representatives divided and the Senate narrowly held by Democrats, both parties are preparing for a hard-fought campaign season.
Republican Concerns over Election Timing
The high-profile spending battles in September are causing some Republicans to worry about the political consequences of a government shutdown or contentious legislation in the weeks leading up to the election. Many moderate Republicans fear that these fights could alienate swing voters or depress turnout, particularly in suburban districts that are crucial to retaining their majority.
On the other hand, conservative Republicans see an opportunity to energize their base by focusing on issues like voter integrity, fiscal restraint, and the border crisis. By potentially attaching the SAVE Act to the CR, they hope to put Democrats in the uncomfortable position of opposing a bill designed to prevent non-citizens from voting, a stance they believe will be unpopular with many voters.
Election Spending and Messaging
The final two months before the election are also expected to see a flurry of activity from both parties. Campaign ads, rallies, and get-out-the-vote efforts will be in full swing as candidates make their closing arguments to voters. Democrats are likely to focus on protecting democracy, reproductive rights, and expanding economic opportunity, while Republicans will emphasize inflation, immigration, and public safety.
The Harris campaign is expected to outspend Trump’s by a significant margin, particularly in digital and traditional media advertising. This advantage in resources could be a crucial factor in swing states like Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, where the margins are expected to be razor-thin. Additionally, the focus on suburban and independent voters will likely shape both parties’ campaign strategies as they aim to secure key electoral college victories.
The Lame-Duck Session: What’s on the Table?
After the November 5 election, Congress will enter a "lame-duck" session, during which it may tackle a number of outstanding legislative items. The scope and ambition of this session will depend largely on the outcome of the election. If either party wins a decisive victory, the lame-duck session could see major policy shifts as outgoing lawmakers make one last push to pass legislation before the new Congress is seated in January.
Tax Reform and Permitting Reform
Tax reform is likely to be a top priority in the lame-duck session. Expiring tax provisions, including those from the 2017 tax law, will need to be addressed. Depending on the political makeup of the incoming Congress, there could be efforts to make individual tax cuts permanent or pass bipartisan tax relief measures aimed at working-class Americans.
Permitting reform is another issue that could gain traction. With both parties expressing a desire to streamline the approval process for infrastructure and energy projects, the lame-duck session presents an opportunity to pass meaningful reforms. However, any such reforms will need to navigate the deeply polarized political landscape.
Defense Spending and the NDAA
The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), an annual must-pass piece of legislation that outlines the budget and expenditures of the U.S. military, will likely be addressed during the lame-duck session. While typically non-controversial, the NDAA could become a vehicle for other legislative priorities, including appropriations for defense programs and other sectors of the economy. There is also the potential for a debate over the scope of U.S. military aid to Ukraine, a divisive issue within the Republican Party.
Farm Bill and Appropriations
If the Farm Bill is not addressed before the election, it could be revisited in the lame-duck session. Additionally, any unresolved appropriations bills or funding disputes from September could carry over into the final weeks of the year. The outcome of the election will significantly shape the priorities of the lame-duck session and the willingness of both parties to compromise on these key issues.
In Short… Get Ready for a Wild Ride
As Congress returns from its August recess, the next few months will be critical for both the legislative agenda and the 2024 election. With government funding, agricultural policy, and tax reform on the table, the stakes are high. The outcome of the November 5 election will not only determine the political landscape for 2025 but also influence the priorities of the lame-duck session, where lawmakers may seek to pass major reforms before the year ends.
