Election Update: Debate Highlights and Swing State Polls Ahead of November
On September 10, 2024, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump met at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia for the second presidential debate of this election cycle. This face-off marked the first time these two candidates debated each other, and the event did not disappoint, with sharp contrasts in debate styles, substance, and strategies on display.
Key Debate Issues
The candidates addressed a wide range of topics, including the economy, immigration, fracking, foreign policy, and critiques of President Biden's current administration.
The Economy: Both candidates offered contrasting economic visions. Harris emphasized sustainable economic growth through green energy initiatives, while Trump reiterated his commitment to deregulation and energy independence, focusing on traditional fossil fuels like oil and gas. The economy was notably Ms. Harris’ weakest subject, though neither candidate demonstrated a clear plan for moving the economy forward, and away from record inflation, food, and gas prices. See more details about the Harris campaign’s economic policy platform here.
Immigration: The two clashed over immigration policies, with Harris advocating for comprehensive immigration reform and a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, whereas Trump doubled down on border security and stricter immigration enforcement. Ms. Harris spoke about the bipartisan immigration bill that failed earlier this year, and blamed its failure on Trump. Former president Trump continued to use many of his signature lines on record numbers of illegal immigrants crossing the border and the fentanyl crisis.
Fracking: A particularly contentious issue, fracking, highlighted differences in their environmental policies, with Trump defending its role in energy independence, while Harris stressed the need to transition to cleaner energy sources to combat climate change. She notably used the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) not as a success for the clean energy industry, but instead she touted how it actually helped the oil and gas industry. She has reversed her 2019 position on fracking, and now has vowed to foster domestic fossil fuel production.
Post-Debate Polls and Voter Reactions: Polls following the debate indicated a boost in Harris’s favor. According to Reuters, Harris gained a lead over Trump, with undecided voters leaning toward her after the debate. This shift may prove critical in battleground swing states, where both campaigns are vying for every vote.
Swing State Updates
Montana's 2024 Senate race has shifted toward the Republicans, with GOP candidate Tim Sheehy holding a lead over incumbent Democrat Jon Tester. Recent polls, including one by AARP Montana, show Sheehy ahead by mid-single digits, with some suggesting a lead as high as 8 points. Political forecasters have shifted the race's status from "Toss Up" to "Lean Republican," largely due to a decline in ticket-splitting and the state's recent electoral trends, which heavily favor Republicans. This makes Tester, who has won three previous Senate races, the underdog in a state that Trump carried by 16 points in the last presidential election. If Tester loses, it will likely contribute to the GOP gaining control of the Senate, as they are also expected to win an open seat in West Virginia.
In Nebraska, Senator Deb Fischer has secured the endorsement of former President Trump as she seeks reelection against Matt Osborn. Fischer's alignment with Trump positions her strongly in a Republican-dominated state, further highlighting the influence of Trump’s backing in key Senate races heading into 2024.
In the presidential race, polling shows a highly competitive field, with several battleground states shifting toward the Republicans. For instance, states like Georgia and North Carolina, where President Biden is struggling to maintain support among Black voters, are now rated "Leans Republican." Biden is also losing ground with Hispanic voters in key states like Nevada, which has moved to a "Tossup" rating. However, Biden's position is stronger in pro-choice states like Michigan and Arizona, where polling remains tight but slightly more favorable for Democrats.
On the Senate side, Republicans are also favored to gain ground. Key battleground states such as Montana and West Virginia, where Democrats face tough reelection challenges, have moved toward the GOP. However, Democrats are holding firm in places like Wisconsin and Michigan, where incumbents like Tammy Baldwin and Elissa Slotkin are expected to perform well despite tight presidential polling.
Looking Ahead
With just weeks left until Election Day, candidates up and down ballot are working hard to solidify their positions in critical swing states. The results of this debate and the subsequent polling data may influence undecided voters and set the tone for the remainder of the campaign.